yNew England Patriots (11-5) - New England will sorely miss running back Corey Dillon, who became a free agent after the end of the season and appears set to retire, but a new crop of wide receivers, including bombshell Randy Moss and late blooming Wes Welker, will help Tom Brady score the points to push them to the play-offs.
Miami Dolphins (8-8) - The Dolphins are hoping to rejuvenate the offense with new coach Cam Cameron and Trent Green, their second new quarterback in two years. With an ageing defense and Jason Taylor hinting at retirement last season, the Dolphins know it’s getting closer and closer to make-it-or-break-it time.
New York Jets (7-9) - Quarterback Chad Pennington is a solid player at his best but continually injury-ridden. With not too many changes from last season but Thomas Jones a key signing to upgrade the running game, the Jets will look to improve but do also face a tough schedule.
Buffalo Bills (5-11) - With quarterback JP Losman remaining mediocre at best, the Bills will miss running back Willis McGahee - departed to Baltimore. Rookie replacement Marshawn Lynch just won’t be able to carry the team to the top of one of the league’s toughest divisions.

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AFC West

*yzSan Diego Chargers (12-4) - The hiring of Norv Turner as head coach surely raised some eyebrows, but this Chargers team is too good for it to make too much of a difference. And after getting this to the Super Bowl last season, San Diego come back with fire in their eyes.
xDenver Broncos (10-6) - After the tragic death of cornerback Darrent Williams, the Broncos will have inspiration to boot this season - as well as loads of new signings and a solid defense to rely on. Quarterback Jay Cutler now has a season under his belt, so expect big connections between him and a solid receiving corps.
Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) - The Chiefs boast arguably the second best running back in the league, but with a weak quarterback in Damon Huard, expect defenses to key in on Larry Johnson more than in previous years.
Oakland Raiders (4-12) - Perennial losers Oakland will be aided by the addition of No1 draft pick JaMarcus Russell - assuming he eventually ends his contract holdout - but it won’t be enough to save the team from its fourth straight last-place in the division.

AFC North

yCincinnati Bengals (10-6) - After coming back from a devastating injury in early 2006, quarterback Carson Palmer continues to look better and better. A solid receiving corps provides him plenty of options. Provided that the defense steps up to the plate and the team stay out of jail, the Bengals should lead the division.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) Replacing an “Old Faithful” coach like Bill Cowher can’t be easy, and the hiring of relative unknown Mike Tomlin raised more than a few eyebrows in Pittsburgh - though not as many as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s sub-par play last season. If Roethlisberger can get it together, running back Willie Parker and a consistent defensive unit should play their parts as well.
Baltimore Ravens (7-9) - Old-timer Steve McNair is far past his prime, but the loss of running back Jamal Lewis to Cleveland takes a lot of drama and only a little skill from the team. Baltimore’s defense always carries the team, and expect more of the same this year unless McNair returns to his Tennessee form.
Cleveland Browns (5-11) - The Browns were unbelievably lucky enough to pass on quarterback Brady Quinn in the first round of the draft and still be able to trade back up to get him with the 22nd pick. Expect to see improvement, but the rookie QB will need more time to make a concrete difference.

AFC South

yzIndianapolis Colts (12-4) - The Colts lost some key players this year, but the reigning Super Bowl champs are simply too good to let it affect them. After the departure of superstar running back Edgerrin James last year - a loss everyone thought would kill them - the Colts won the Super Bowl. The Colts again will be contenders for the AFC title. xJacksonville Jaguars (9-7) - With an iffy passing game but a dead-on runner in Maurice Jones-Drew, expect the Jags to pound it out even more this year. The consistently outstanding defense should help the offense in low-scoring games. Despite the questions on the passing game, Jacksonville has the talent to make the postseason. Houston Texans (6-10) - After head coach Gary Kubiak did quite a lot to turn around the team last year, the newcomers continue to join. The addition of quarterback Matt Schaub and veteran running back Ahman Green should help Houston turn around its perpetual losing streak, but in a division as tough as this, the best the Texans can hope for is third place. Tennessee Titans (6-10) - Last season Tennessee rode its way to an 8-8 record on the shoulders of quarterback Vince Young, who delivered the team’s only good showings. This season, expect defenses to focus more on Young, and with no other Titan on whom to rely, this season could see declines for the Titans.

NFC East

yzPhiladelphia Eagles (10-6) - The return of oft-injured Donovan McNabb to the team will have immediate effects, both on performance and morale. McNabb, as the leader of the team, will help them recreate the hunger for a championship they had during their 2005 Super Bowl run. As long as everyone stays healthy, the Eagles will make a deep run.
xNew York Giants (10-6) - Superstar running back Tiki Barber’s retirement will hurt the Giants deeply, forcing them to look to inconsistent quarterback Eli Manning and a new tag-team of novice running backs. With more pressure on Manning, look for him to step up and start making decisions as he has shown he can in flashes so far.
xWashington Redskins (9-7) - A normally stellar defense fell flat last year due to injuries and miscommunications, but look for it to turn itself around again with new recruits and a more focused approach from the coaches. Young quarterback Jason Campbell will need to step up big this year, but they should be back to something approaching their best.
Dallas Cowboys (8-8) - The big question for the Cowboys this year will be the performance of firecracker Tony Romo, who turned around the team’s season last year only to fall flat in the play-offs. New head coach Wade Phillips will attempt to harness the energy of a lacklustre defense, novice Romo and the headline-happy receiver Terrell Owens. If all the pieces fit together, look for a play-off run. If not, Dallas should be happy with .500.

NFC West

ySan Francisco 49ers (9-7) - The sleeper of the season, San Francisco’s young team is starting to grow up, and quarterback Alex Smith and running back Frank Gore can do nothing but improve with another season under their belts. Some key franchise moves in the off-season mean the Niners will be a force to be reckoned with this season.
Seattle Seahawks (7-9) - One of the better teams in the conference that just can’t seem to get it done, the Seahawks are on their last legs this year with veterans getting older every day. Should Alexander stay healthy, the Seahawks should make their presence known, despite a tough schedule in an increasingly tough division.
Arizona Cardinals (7-9) - Matt Leinart proved himself late in the season last year, setting franchise records for passing yards as a rookie. As long as veteran running back Edgerrin James can get some more carries this year, the Cardinals should improve - but just barely.
St Louis Rams (6-10) - The Rams offense continued to get better this season, with several quality receivers joining Pro Bowlers Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson on the scoring hunt. But a lacklustre defense means the team will only do so much - and with a particularly vicious schedule, the Rams need another year or so before they do any serious damage.

NFC North

yChicago Bears (10-6) - Despite reaching the Super Bowl last season, the Bears showed their weaknesses as they were dismantled by Indianapolis, and questions arose throughout the season whether they would ever win the whole deal with inconsistent Rex Grossman under center. An outstanding defense means they always will be a presence, but they could fall flat in the postseason.
Green Bay Packers (7-9) - Quarterback Brett Favre by now must be nearing the end of his reign in Green Bay, so once again it’s make-it-or-break-it time for the Pack. The departure of running back Ahman Green means there are few other offensive threats on the team, though, and Favre just can’t support the team by himself anymore.
Minnesota Vikings (6-10) - A new quarterback in an otherwise abysmal passing offense means rookie draft pick Adrian Peterson will have to be a miracle-worker for the team to go deep this post season, but a solid running game and good defense could be signs of things to come for the Vikings in a few years’ time.
Detroit Lions (5-11) - Wide receiver Calvin Johnson was a great pick for the Lions, but with no one but Jon Kitna to throw to him, Johnson can only do the team so much good. A struggling offensive line continues to haunt Kitna as sacks and giveaways overshadow his shining moments of success.

NFC South

*yzNew Orleans Saints (11-5) - A new coach, new quarterback and new running back took New Orleans on a storybook run last year, providing inspiration to their ailing city. The unparalleled offense is just getting better this year with several key signings to back up superstars Drew Brees and Reggie Bush.
Carolina Panthers (8-8) - After a string of injuries last season that deeply hurt the Panthers, this season brings a new quarterback in the form of David Carr and new offensive coaches who will look to turn things around. A strong defense helps the team’s case, but too many uncertainties don’t bode well.
Atlanta Falcons (6-10) - New head coach Bobby Petrino has a lot to prove with Atlanta this year, but Michael Vick’s personal (and legal) problems could put quite the crimp in his plans. New wide receivers Joe Horn and Laurent Robinson will help, but without anyone to throw it to them, the Falcons look set for another disappointing season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) - Philadelphia favourite Jeff Garcia joins the team at quarterback, along with several other veteran players meant to guide coach Jon Gruden’s younger team. With several new players on offense, Gruden hopes he can finally reclaim the glory of his first few years in Tampa Bay, but this strung-together team doesn’t seem to be the way to do it - yet.

x: clinched play-off spot
y: clinched division title
z: clinched homefield advantage
*: clinched first-week bye

PLAY-OFFS

AFC
1 San Diego Chargers 2 Indianapolis Colts 3 New England Patriots 4 Cincinnati Bengals 5 Denver Broncos 6 Jacksonville Jaguars

NFC
1 New Orleans Saints 2 Philadelphia Eagles 3 Chicago Bears 4 San Francisco 49ers 5 New York Giants 6 Washington Redskins

WEEK 1

Wildcard Weekend

Cincinnati Bengals v Denver Broncos
WINNER: Broncos
The Broncos have something to prove after the issues of last season, so look to them to make a late play-off spurt.

Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots
WINNER: Patriots
The Patriots aren’t going to let play-off hopes slip away so easily this year, so expect them to rout the wildcard game with a bang.

San Francisco 49ers v New York Giants
WINNER: Giants
The Giants know just making it to the play-offs no longer cuts it, so expect them to push their limits with a big game from Eli.

Chicago Bears v Washington Redskins
WINNER: Redskins
The Skins have a lot to prove after only mild success from Gibbs, and a floundering Bears team won’t have the passion to stop them.

WEEK 2

Divisional Play-offs
San Diego Chargers v Denver Broncos
WINNER: Chargers
The Chargers, after a week off, will stop the Broncos’ play-off dreams in their tracks with a quality display of football. New England Patriots v Indianapolis Colts
WINNER: Colts
In a priceless rematch of last year’s AFC Championship, the Patriots can’t beat the Colts’ talent after the defense stops Brady. New Orleans Saints v Washington Redskins
WINNER: Saints
The Redskins’ fire also can’t hold up to the packed Saints team, allowing Brees & Co. a relatively painless trip to the championship.

Philadelphia Eagles v New York Giants
WINNER: Eagles
The Eagles and Donovan McNabb take it to division rivals New York in a stomping that Eli’s defense just can’t handle.

WEEK 3

Conference Championships

San Diego Chargers v Indianapolis Colts
WINNER: Chargers
The reigning champs just don’t have the passion of newcomers San Diego, and LT is too much even for Indy’s defense.

New Orleans Saints v Philadelphia Eagles
WINNER: Eagles Philly pull a surprise win over conference favourite New Orleans when McNabb fits with his receivers for long touchdowns.

WEEK 4

Super Bowl Sunday

San Diego Chargers v Philadelphia Eagles
WINNER: Chargers
The Chargers want it this season, and they aren’t going to let anyone tell them they couldn’t have it. The power team of surprise hit Philip Rivers and the league’s leading rusher LaDanian Tomlinson will blow the team past anyone who tries to get in their way. This team is too skilled and too angry about last season’s 24-21 defeat to the Patriots to let it happen again.

The Atlanta Falcons responded this past Monday, which happened to be the day that Michael Vick pleaded guilty to conspiracy charges, by beating the Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points in the Georgia Dome.

They put up 24 points against the Bengals in that one. Don’t expect the Falcons to come close to putting that many points up against the Ravens in this game.

The Baltimore Ravens are one of those teams that plays hard every down of every play — whether it be in pre-season or the regular season. The Atlanta Falcons defense is pretty awful and Willis McGahee, the new Raven’s running back, should feel good about shredding it a week and two days before the regular season starts.

This game amounts to little more than a work-out for the Ravens who are just a much better team than the Falcons.

The NFL betting line of -3.5 against the Ravens shouldn’t be a problem at all as the Falcons may take a step back four days after their emotional game versus the Bengals. They won’t be fired up at all to play against a Raven’s defense that will be going full throttle in this one.

To put things more in the Raven’s favor, Joey Harrington, the new Atlanta Falcon’s quarterback can’t afford to get hurt in the pre-season. Expect Harrington to play maybe two or three series while the Raven’s first team defense will play well into the third quarter.

The spread is 3.5 points against the Ravens. We pick the Ravens and we’ll try to pad the bankroll going into the regular season.

See my NFL Picks.

It is the fourth and final week of the NFL preseason, and it is likely that everybody is ready to get things rolling. Me too. Preseason is meaningless, and so are my preseason predictions. I have already received some emails regarding last week’s picks, which shows the passion that fans really do have. But it is just that. Preseason. It is tough enough to pick the regular season games, let alone ones where most of the regulars hardly even play.

I am ready to take on all comers again this year, and emails with your thoughts and analysis are very welcome. I have taken a lot of playful abuse over the last couple of years, mainly due to jealousy of my football knowledge. That is understandable. However, it is not my fault that I happen to know more than you, and once again it will be proven this year. But that is part of the fun with this column. I will pick four preseason games this week, and then on to the regular season.

As always, home team in CAPS.

NEW ENGLAND 4 New York Giants
It is certainly a plus that Asante Samuel is now signed, but I still have some questions with the Patriots defensive backfield. That might be their only weakness though. They should be ready to roll, at least through the regular season. I am not so sure about the Giants. It looks like Michael Strahan is going to end his “retirement”, but I think the Giants’ offense is going to be the key, specifically Eli Manning. The Patriots should win this preseason finale though.
Patriots 20-13

MINNESOTA 1 1/2 Dallas
These two teams have a lot of issues, but being in the NFC is going to help. The Vikings just don’t have a lot of talent, but their weak division is going to be a factor. As for the Cowboys, I think they are overrated. I think they have issues on offense, defense and coaching. I think their defense will be good, but probably not enough to carry them too far. And new coach Wade Phillips has not had a lot of success, and he has had his share of chances. Still, take the Cowboys here, as they are the better team, preseason or not.
Cowboys 23-17

SAN DIEGO 3 San Francisco
I don’t seem to hear a lot of people talking about the Chargers in the AFC, but I think I know why. Norv Turner, plain and simple. He has had very little success as an NFL head coach, but he has so much talent in San Diego it might not matter. The Chargers are going to be a force in the AFC, and could very well go deep into the playoffs this year. The 49ers might well make the playoffs too. Defensive upgrades, a strong offense and mediocre division all play factors in San Francisco. They should be a team to watch. But don’t watch them this week.
Chargers 26-14

NEW ORLEANS 1 1/2 Miami
The Saints look to be pretty good this year, and being an NFC team, they could have playoff aspirations. They do have Carolina in their division, which should be their main competition. The Dolphins are a big question mark. An entire new coaching staff, and questionable talent on both sides of the ball. I think Trent Green will help, but not that much. Take the Saints here. Why not?
Saints 20-10

The Patriots continued their reign atop the AFC East last season, but failure to advance to the Super Bowl meant it was time to shake things up in New England. Tom Brady saw his passing stats drop by nearly 600 yards last year and most of the blame fell to the Pats’ lackluster receivers. The receiving corps went through a major upgrade during the offseason with the addition of Randy Moss, Donte’ Stallworth and Wes Welker.

The Patriots are taking a big chance on Moss, whose stock plummeted after two abysmal seasons in Oakland. If Moss can rebound and recapture the abilities that made him one of the most feared wideouts in the league a few years ago, he could be a huge steal and a key producer for New England. The Patriots will also see a small change in the backfield this season. Last season rookie Laurence Maroney split the carries with veteran Corey Dillon, but now that Dillon is gone the starting job is Maroney’s alone.

The Patriots’ defense has been a strength for the team since they won their first Super Bowl. That tradition should continue this year after New England added former Ravens’ linebacker Adalius Thomas. Thomas recorded 11 sacks for Baltimore last season and should fit nicely into the Belichick system. The Pats’ defense could have one problem if cornerback Asante Samuel continues to hold out. Samuel had 10 interceptions last year and will be missed in the secondary if he doesn’t return.

The Buccaneers would probably like to forget last season after they went 4-12 and fell to the bottom of the NFC South. Tampa Bay’s biggest question mark during the preseason is at quarterback. The Bucs will have to choose between Chris Simms, Jeff Garcia and Bruce Gradkowski. Simms had his spleen removed after taking a pounding in Tampa Bay’s third game last season and will need to prove himself all over again if he wants to reclaim the starting job. The Bucs threw some money at Garcia after his successful season in Philadelphia last year and he should have the inside track on the starting job. Gradkowski will only end up back in the starting job the same way he did last year – through injury.

Whoever does end up behind center has a go-to target in Joey Galloway, but the rest of the Tampa receiving corps (Michael Clayton, Ike Hilliard) is pretty thin. Carnell Williams is still the starting running back despite rushing for only 798 yards and one touchdown last season. There’s nobody else on the Bucs’ roster capable of stealing his job, which equals job security for Williams. The old Bucs’ defense that used to be feared throughout the league disappeared last season and doesn’t appear to be on the way back this year. First-round pick Gaines Adams has a bright future at DE, but has little to work with this season.

Since they’re the home team and because the starters will only see a series or two, the Bucs are a 3-point favorite on the NFL odds list for this game. The Patriots and Bucs last clashed in 2005 when New England shut out Tampa Bay 28-0.

I read an article in the Washington Post called ‘When the Fix Is In, You Can’t Believe It‘. It made a few good points about mistrust in sports today. From baseball, to cycling to wrestling, it seems the whole sports world has gone mad.

Sports betting in the US - whether in its legal form in Las Vegas and Atlantic City or illegally elsewhere (including, since 2006, the Internet) - is a multibillion dollar business.

Some sports, like boxing, have long been tainted by ties with gambling and organised crime. But since 1919, the “big three” have been clean. Or have they? Every sign is that, as it has struggled to recapture the glories (and the TV ratings) of the Jordan era, basketball has been looking in the wrong direction. Its focus has been on improving the on- and off-court conduct of its players. The NBA might have been better running a rule on the people who run its games.

Donaghy, according to David Stern, the NBA’s commissioner, is a one-off, “an isolated case”. But the normally sublimely self-confident Stern cut a chastened and sombre figure at a press conference this week. It was, he confessed “the most serious situation and the worst situation” in his 23 years in charge of the league. “I can’t believe this is happening to us.” No charges have yet been filed. But matters may get worse when the former referee turns himself in to the federal authorities, probably early next week, and if, as seems likely, he agrees to cooperate with FBI investigators.

As for motive, one can only speculate. Envy perhaps? Though Donaghy was paid $260,000 (£127,000) last year, that sum is barely a week’s wages for some of the petulant stars he manages on court. Or was he simply a compulsive gambler - who had in fact been seen placing bets at an Atlantic City casino back in 2005, in violation of NBA rules?

The real question, though, is not so much whether he gambled. Did he actually fix games, for the benefit of himself or gambling syndicates? A referee certainly has plenty of scope to do so. The most common basketball bet is for or against a “line” set by bookmakers for a game - that one team will win by a certain number of points. “Bulls -5″, for instance, means that the Chicago Bulls (Jordan’s old team) are favoured by five points. Bet on the Bulls and they have to win by more than that for you to win as well. If a flood of bets comes in on one side, the line will be adjusted accordingly.

Another frequent wager is an “over-under” bet; that the combined points total for a quarter, a half, or a whole game will be above or below a predetermined figure. Again, a tide of bets either over or under will cause oddsmakers to shift that figure.

A referee can easily manipulate scores by calling dubious fouls, forcing a team to bench its best players, and allowing the other team extra free-throw scoring opportunities. At least a dozen Donaghy games are under scrutiny, and some possible anomalies have already been noted. Over the past two seasons, he awarded more free throws than any other NBA referee.

According to the sports betting website Pregame.com, the first 15 games of the 2006-2007 season refereed by Donaghy that drew enough bets to move the line 1.5 points or more “were perfect against Las Vegas - meaning the big-money gamblers won 15 times out of 15 on his games”. Although there is no suggestion of wrongdoing, the odds against that happening, claims Pregame.com, are 32,768-1.

For others however, the evidence is less conclusive. Had the discrepancies been that glaring and that frequent, someone would surely have raised a red flag. After all, the NBA monitors every game minutely to make sure fouls have been called correctly. Ultimately, without details only Donaghy and/or any accomplices can provide, nothing is provable in law.

But in terms of faith dented, suspicions aroused and reputations unjustly tarred, Stern is right to talk of “a betrayal of the most sacred trust in professional sports.” After Donaghy, basketball fans will wonder darkly about every referee and every questionable foul call. As for the players, Shaquille O’Neal - center for the Miami Heat and one of the most dominant players of his era - summed up their feelings to the Washington Post last weekend. “How many games did he throw that I played in?” Even if Donaghy is a single rotten apple, and no game-fixing is proved, the damage to basketball will not be quickly undone.

But Stern is not the only major league sports boss who must do some soul-searching. As he wonders whether and how enthusiastically to attend the games at which Bonds might equal and break Aaron’s record (he is two behind on 753 at the time of writing), the baseball commissioner Bud Selig should ask himself how his sport for so long turned a blind eye to steroids. Bond’s late-career power surge was only the culmination of the freakish home run explosion of the late 1990s, which won back fans disgusted by the players’ strike of 1994-1995. The suspicions were glaring. But until Balco left it no choice, baseball’s high command did nothing.

And what of Roger Goodell at the NFL? There had been talk for years that some players were linked to dogfighting, a felony in 48 of the 50 states. How come this was missed amid the disciplinary clampdown on errant NFL players that has already seen one suspended for the entire 2007 season?

But that is just one question unanswered in this amazing summer of sporting scandal.

Brown was scheduled to take a physical Friday before signing his contract and joining the Cardinals at training camp on the Northern Arizona University campus.

The 6-foot-3, 323-pound offensive tackle out of Penn State was the No. 5 overall draft pick and has missed the Cardinals’ first five days of NFL preseason practices.

The book on how to handle scandal at a leading sports franchise has been written time and time again. Typically, the front offices of the most highly regarded and profitable teams are dealing with the same old stories every season–player beats wife, player has a gambling, drug, alcohol abuse problem. It’s all been done, and all the incidents have been handled accordingly.

Everyone keeps his job. Everyone–seemingly–wins. And in a world where winning is paramount, such an outcome isn’t at all surprising.

But what do you do when you’re trying to protect the integrity of a roughly $730 million enterprise and the image of your marquee player and product is soiled for reasons never previously encountered?

On July 17, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick was indicted on a federal conspiracy charge for his alleged role in a dog fighting venture that operated from a property he owns in Virginia. The National Football League had to act swiftly.

The 27-year-old Pro-Bowler pleaded not guilty on the day Falcons training camp convened. Under the order of NFL commissioner, Roger Goodell, Vick will not get to work out with the team in the pre-season.

Goodell, in his best effort as overseer of all operations, told the Falcons to withhold any disciplinary action of their own until the league’s review.

On Monday, one of Vick’s co-defendants pleaded guilty and as part of a plea agreement said he would co-operate in the prosecution of Vick and two other men.

Regardless of the case’s legal status, the ripple effect from a business perspective has quickly gathered pace.

Nike (nyse: NKE - news - people ) suspended its sneaker deal with the football star. Reebok, the official supplier of apparel and equipment to all 32 NFL teams, pulled the popular No. 7 jersey off the retail racks. Donruss, one of four major trading-card companies, withdrew Vick’s card from any future 2007 releases. Rival Upper Deck followed suit and also removed autographed Vick memorabilia from its Web site.

Don Hinchey, vice president of communications at the Bonham Group, a sports and entertainment marketing firm, said the league and the team have acted “prudently and appropriately” to preserve their images.

Usually, the victim is man’s fellow man, not man’s best friend. Meanwhile, Vick’s future with the NFL remains cloudy.

“I don’t think he’ll be able to play again if he’s found guilty,” Hinchey said.

“We seem to have gone beyond doubt, dislike, disapproval and even distrust,” Hinchey said. “We’re now into the realm of unmitigated disgust. That’s a place where the prospects for redemption, marketing or otherwise, are severely restricted.”

The Falcons, whose top priority is running a business and, of course, fielding a team, have inserted backup quarterback Joey Harrington indefinitely and are understandably weighing their options with Vick’s contract.

While team owner Arthur Blank wouldn’t say whether he wants Vick to continue playing for his Falcons, he recommended that Vick take a year off from football for his own peace of mind.

That’s fine, but back to business.

According to NFL.com, Vick takes the biggest chunk out of the Falcons’ $110 million salary cap with his $13.57 million cut as of July 20. But if he is released before the final 53-man roster is determined Sept. 2, they will get back $6 million in cap space by unloading him before opening day.

Then the Falcons would have about $100 million to field a team, which would be spent largely on young talent, the future of the franchise.

Because it is after June 1, the Falcons would not have to take the big hit on Vick’s signing bonus until next year. That means that in 2008, the Falcons would have to absorb the $14.68 million charge for all the bonus money paid to Vick that was being spread out over the length of his contract.

Andy Appleby, chairman and chief executive of General Sports Entertainment, a sports management consulting group, said the NFL and the Falcons are being forced to “move quickly yet cautiously” ahead of any official judgment. So it’d be foolish to think that these numbers aren’t already a consideration. Yet it goes hand-in-hand with the moral dilemma here.

“You have an image, but at the same time you need to do the right thing,” Appleby said, adding that the public seems to have already made up its mind on Vick.

“If he’s innocent, he’s certainly going to play again. Initially, people gravitate to what the charges are, assuming that’ll most likely be the outcome. But as we saw with Duke [and the eventual dropping of charges against members of the university’s lacrosse team] and several others, you have to let the due process take place.”

But despite the adverse image in the media, the Vick story isn’t completely one-way. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported this week that some 200 people had rallied in support of the star, braving “rain and thunderclaps outside the Georgia Dome to condemn the country, the media, Nike and, most of all, the Atlanta Falcons for treating Michael Vick like a dog,” the paper said.

The paper quoted one of the protesters as saying, “I don’t like the double standard they have with Vick. They look the other way in these other cases, and they castrate Vick.”